Kenya’s National Energy Policy 2025-2034: What the Renewables Push Means for Investors

Kenya’s next National Energy Policy has been widely described online as though it were already settled government policy, complete with headline renewable-energy targets. It is not settled yet, and at least one widely repeated figure about it does not actually appear in the document. This article sets out what the draft policy actually says, where it stands in Parliament right now, and what a real investor should and should not treat as fixed before it is formally adopted.

Still a Draft, Not Yet Law

The National Energy Policy 2025-2034 exists as a real document prepared by the Ministry of Energy and Petroleum, marked on its own cover page as a “Final Draft.” It has moved through the legislative process further than most draft policies: it was tabled in the National Assembly as Sessional Paper No. 5 of 2026 and reviewed by the Departmental Committee on Energy, which tabled its committee report on 2 July 2026. A motion to formally adopt the Sessional Paper was then scheduled, but on 12 August 2026 that motion was deferred without debate because the committee chairperson was absent. We found no parliamentary record after that date showing the motion has since been taken up, debated, or adopted. As things stand, this is a draft that has cleared committee review but has not received the National Assembly’s approval. Some international policy trackers describe it as “in force,” which we believe is premature measured against Kenya’s own parliamentary record, and investors should not treat any specific provision as binding until the House actually adopts it.

The Renewables Figure Everyone Cites Is Not in the Document

An “85% renewables target” has circulated widely in connection with this policy. We searched the full text of the draft policy directly and that figure does not appear anywhere in it. What the document does state is that renewable sources made up 82% of Kenya’s total installed generation capacity as of December 2024, a description of the current state of the grid, not a forward-looking target for 2030 or 2034. Separately, the draft does contain a commitment to “100% clean energy by 2030,” but only within a narrow discussion of energy storage systems, not as the policy’s headline target. The 85% figure most likely traces back to older, separate statistics on Kenya’s electricity generation mix (as distinct from installed capacity) published by international renewable energy bodies, which is a different measurement entirely and not a feature of this specific policy. Treat any single-number “renewables target” attributed to this draft with real caution until the adopted version, if and when it is adopted, states one explicitly.

What the Draft Actually Proposes on Power Purchase Agreements and Net Metering

Contrary to some reporting, the draft does not promise extended terms for Power Purchase Agreements. What it does propose is a shift toward more flexible PPA structures, including allowing generators to retail power directly to retail customers, developing a flexible pricing mechanism tied to hydro generation, and standardizing PPA templates for cogeneration and waste-to-energy projects. The draft is also candid about a real problem with the current model: the state off-taker’s existing PPAs are denominated in foreign currency while its own revenue is in shillings, creating foreign exchange exposure that the draft flags as a constraint on the sector’s transition.

Net metering, meanwhile, is not a new feature of this draft policy at all. Kenya’s Energy (Net Metering) Regulations, allowing small generators to connect to the grid and offset their own consumption, were already gazetted in June 2024, under the existing legal framework, before this draft policy existed. The new draft’s contribution is a commitment to build out the technical and compensation frameworks around net metering and captive power more generally, not to create the right itself.

What Stays the Same: EPRA’s Day-to-Day Role

Whatever happens to this policy in Parliament, the Energy and Petroleum Regulatory Authority remains the body that actually licenses generation, transmission, distribution, and supply, and that approves the tariffs power producers negotiate with the off-taker, under the Energy Act, 2019. This policy operates at a different level: it sets the government’s medium-term strategic direction, which EPRA and the Ministry would then need to translate into specific regulatory amendments if and when it is adopted. An investor’s immediate licensing requirements continue to run through EPRA’s existing framework regardless of this policy’s fate in the House.

What This Means for Investment Timing

None of this means the draft is irrelevant to a current investment decision. Kenya’s regulator, EPRA, is named throughout the draft’s implementation tables as the institution responsible for translating its proposals into binding regulation if and when the Sessional Paper is adopted, and EPRA has separately been developing its own draft Renewable Energy Resource Regulations alongside this policy process. An investor structuring a project with a multi-year horizon should treat the draft policy as a reliable signal of direction, toward more flexible PPA structures and continued reliance on net metering and captive generation, while building contractual flexibility into any long-term arrangement rather than assuming today’s draft language will survive into the adopted version unchanged. Given how recently the adoption motion was deferred, it is also worth checking the Sessional Paper’s status again immediately before finalizing any transaction that depends on a specific provision of it.